Maximilian (Max) J. Gebauer

Reproducible applied research

Statistics Projects

Below are a selection of projects highlighting different areas of my statistics and analytics research across the NFL, MLB, and public health.

Project case studies

Abstract baseball field with batted-ball trajectories and a calibration curve representing FAIR xwOBA
Public release · rolling development evidence

FAIR xwOBA

A baseball model for expected contact value · Field- and Atmosphere-Informed Realized-contact xwOBA

A public, player-trait-free baseball model that predicts the value of a batted ball, validates it across rolling held-out MLB seasons, and uses residuals to study Sprint Speed.

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Abstract diagram of opposing football players connected through a sequence of time-indexed matchups
Revisions · arXiv preprint

Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance

Interpretable paired-comparison models for pass protection and pass rush

Public research on interpretable blocker and rusher ratings built from sparse, opponent-dependent tracking interactions.

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Abstract county map with highlighted spatial neighbors and a sparse set of selected variables
M.A. thesis · 2026

Sparse Controls in Spatial Epidemiology

Sparse Control Selection for Spatial Epidemiological Data: Double LASSO and County COVID-19 Mortality

An M.A. thesis on high-dimensional confounding, unstable county mortality rates, and residual spatial dependence.

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